Gold Extending Weakness

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

In 240 minutes chart, Gold has topped. Gold is making its way lower in an impulsive fashion. The short term count has changed slightly. It seems as though the first 5 wave decline ended following a terminal thrust from a triangle. The 3 wave correction may be complete just shy of its 100% extension. I am exceptionally bearish gold from here.

USD/CHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.0617 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 1.0484 in a high volatile market. The bias is neutral in both nearest and medium term as price still consolidating in range area of 1.0675 - 1.0350. Immediate resistance at 1.0580. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.0675. Initial support at 1.0450. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0350.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the minor trendline resistance but whipsawed to the downside and now back below the trendline resistance indicating potential further bearish pressure as we may have a false breakout scenario here. However we know that 85.30/00 region is a strong support area and need to be clearly broken before testing 84.82 and 83.35 region. Immediate resistance at 85.96 followed by 86.25 area.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5709 closed higher at 1.5850 but traded lower around 1.5790 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and overall we are still in bullish phase as long as price move inside the bullish channel but further downside pressure still potential from here re-testing 1.5735/09 support area. Consistent move below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5660 even 1.5550 region. Bullish may re-gain its momentum again only if able to stay consistently above 1.5966.

Daily Forecast for Crosses

EURJPY Daily Forecast

The EURJPY made a significant bearish momentum by slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating a serious threat to the upside correction scenario. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 110.70. Immediate resistance at 112.70. Break above that area should keep the upside scenario intact.

GBPJPY Daily Forecast

The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session traded around 134.60 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 113.70. Immediate resistance at 135.80. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone but the bearish scenario remains intact as long as price move inside the bearish channel.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9058 but closed higher at 0.9131 and traded lower again around 0.9070 at the time I wrote this comment. After price break below the rising wedge, technically we are enter the bearish phase at least in nearest term now testing 0.9040 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure targeting 0.8965 before testing key support level around 0.8858. Immediate resistance at 0.9139 (current high). Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3074, closed higher at 1.3175 and now traded lower again 1.3105 at the time I wrote this comment. Overall we are still in bullish phase but if there are times when price will make potential significant downside correction, now is one of those times. Like I said, we are now in a tricky phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term but further downside pullback still potential from here testing 1.3045/00 region especially if price able to move consistently below 1.3105. Bullish may re-gain its momentum again only if able to stay consistently above 1.3250.