EUR/USD Daily Forecast

Friday, August 13, 2010

The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. I found something interesting about the CCI behavior on h4 chart below. Here is the situation: Price still move in bullish channel, indicating we are in bullish phase, but corrected lower from 1.3332 to 1.2782. Now look at my CCI. The A part show that the bullish gained its momentum back after being in oversold area and cross the -100 line up. The B part show that CCI cross the -100 line up, but the bearish pressure didn't stop and price keep under bearish pressure. Now we are in the C part, where CCI also in oversold area and cross the -100 line up. Learning from past experience, from here the bullish and bearish scenario probability is 50-50. Although we are seeing some upside pressure now, my bullish mode will be reactivated at least when price able to move consistently above 50% Fibo retracement of 1.3332 - 1.2782 which is located around 1.3057. Now, let's look at the intra-day. Immediate resistance around 1.2880 - 1.2900 area. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2980 - 1.3000. Initial support at 1.2782. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2700/35 and the lower line of the bullish channel and could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook.

Daily Forecast for Crosses

EURJPY Daily Forecast

The EURJPY was technically a mess yesterday. I have no significant chart patterns that could show me the direction in nearest term. After violated the bullish channel, the direction should be more to the downside, but we have a very strong support around 109.20 area as you can see on my h1 chart below. Consistent move above 110.70 could trigger further upside pressure testing 111.50/60 area. On the downside we need a clear break below 109.20 to continue the bearish pressure testing 108.07 - 107.30 area.

GBPJPY Daily Forecast

The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that the minor bearish channel (red) has been violated to the upside indicating potential upside pressure in nearest term testing 135.50 but note that unless price break above the major bearish channel (white) the bearish scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 133.70 followed by 132.98 (yesterday's low).

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in major bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 0.9040. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9145 and could be an early sign of bullish continuation. Initial support remains around 0.8858 area. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. On h1 chart we have a falling wedge formation indicating potential upside scenario especially if price break above the formation testing 1.5735. But the real bullish mode will be reactivated only of price able to move above the trendline resistance (yellow) which also the 50% Fibo retracement of 1.5992 - 1.5564 around 1.5775, retesting 1.6000 region. Immediate support at 1.5550. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY was bullish yesterday after rejected to move consistently below 84.82/73. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 87.00 and the trendline resistance area but we need a clear break above 86.25 resistance area to continue the upside pressure. Note that overall we are still in major bearish outlook, but need a clear break below 84.82/73 to continue the bearish scenario testing 83.35. I will stand aside for now.

USD/CHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF failed to continued its bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0464 and closed at 1.0497. Overall we are still in range area of 1.0675 - 1.0350 and need a break on either side to see clearer direction. Immediate support at 1.0450. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0350. Initial resistance at 1.0600 followed by 1.0675. I will stand aside for now.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast

Thursday, August 12, 2010

The EURUSD had a huge bearish movement yesterday, bottomed at 1.2859 and closed at 1.2862. On daily chart below we can see that after failed to move above 1.3340 resistance area, the Euro has been under heavy pressure and now price seems ready to test the lower line of the bullish channel, which is located around 1.2700 area, especially if price able to move consistently below 1.2800. Break below 1.2700 and violation to the bullish channel could be seen as bullish failure and potential bearish reversal scenario at least testing 1.2470. Immediate resistance at 1.2920 followed by 1.2980 - 1.3000 area. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact.

Daily Forecast for Crosses

EURJPY Daily Forecast

The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 109.65 and closed at 109.74. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 108.07 - 107.30 area. Immediate resistance at 110.00 followed by 110.70. Break above 110.70 could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the downside.

GBPJPY Daily Forecast

The GBPJPY also continued its bearish pressure yesterday, bottomed at 132.79 and closed at 133.58. On h1 chart below, as a result of huge bearish pressure, we have a new sharper bearish channel indicating strong bearish momentum. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 132.00 region. Immediate resistance at 133.70. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in a strong bearish scenario.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8966 and closed at 0.8969. Although overall the major bullish scenario remains intact, it is surely under a serious threat since we have the rising wedge formation. To ignore this bearish reversal warning is foolish. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing key support area 0.8858. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.8715 region. Immediate resistance at 0.9040. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term.

 
 
 

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