EUR/USD Daily Forecast

Friday, August 13, 2010

The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. I found something interesting about the CCI behavior on h4 chart below. Here is the situation: Price still move in bullish channel, indicating we are in bullish phase, but corrected lower from 1.3332 to 1.2782. Now look at my CCI. The A part show that the bullish gained its momentum back after being in oversold area and cross the -100 line up. The B part show that CCI cross the -100 line up, but the bearish pressure didn't stop and price keep under bearish pressure. Now we are in the C part, where CCI also in oversold area and cross the -100 line up. Learning from past experience, from here the bullish and bearish scenario probability is 50-50. Although we are seeing some upside pressure now, my bullish mode will be reactivated at least when price able to move consistently above 50% Fibo retracement of 1.3332 - 1.2782 which is located around 1.3057. Now, let's look at the intra-day. Immediate resistance around 1.2880 - 1.2900 area. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2980 - 1.3000. Initial support at 1.2782. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2700/35 and the lower line of the bullish channel and could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook.