EUR/USD Daily Forecast

Friday, August 13, 2010

The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. I found something interesting about the CCI behavior on h4 chart below. Here is the situation: Price still move in bullish channel, indicating we are in bullish phase, but corrected lower from 1.3332 to 1.2782. Now look at my CCI. The A part show that the bullish gained its momentum back after being in oversold area and cross the -100 line up. The B part show that CCI cross the -100 line up, but the bearish pressure didn't stop and price keep under bearish pressure. Now we are in the C part, where CCI also in oversold area and cross the -100 line up. Learning from past experience, from here the bullish and bearish scenario probability is 50-50. Although we are seeing some upside pressure now, my bullish mode will be reactivated at least when price able to move consistently above 50% Fibo retracement of 1.3332 - 1.2782 which is located around 1.3057. Now, let's look at the intra-day. Immediate resistance around 1.2880 - 1.2900 area. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2980 - 1.3000. Initial support at 1.2782. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2700/35 and the lower line of the bullish channel and could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook.

Daily Forecast for Crosses

EURJPY Daily Forecast

The EURJPY was technically a mess yesterday. I have no significant chart patterns that could show me the direction in nearest term. After violated the bullish channel, the direction should be more to the downside, but we have a very strong support around 109.20 area as you can see on my h1 chart below. Consistent move above 110.70 could trigger further upside pressure testing 111.50/60 area. On the downside we need a clear break below 109.20 to continue the bearish pressure testing 108.07 - 107.30 area.

GBPJPY Daily Forecast

The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that the minor bearish channel (red) has been violated to the upside indicating potential upside pressure in nearest term testing 135.50 but note that unless price break above the major bearish channel (white) the bearish scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 133.70 followed by 132.98 (yesterday's low).

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in major bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 0.9040. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9145 and could be an early sign of bullish continuation. Initial support remains around 0.8858 area. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. On h1 chart we have a falling wedge formation indicating potential upside scenario especially if price break above the formation testing 1.5735. But the real bullish mode will be reactivated only of price able to move above the trendline resistance (yellow) which also the 50% Fibo retracement of 1.5992 - 1.5564 around 1.5775, retesting 1.6000 region. Immediate support at 1.5550. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY was bullish yesterday after rejected to move consistently below 84.82/73. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 87.00 and the trendline resistance area but we need a clear break above 86.25 resistance area to continue the upside pressure. Note that overall we are still in major bearish outlook, but need a clear break below 84.82/73 to continue the bearish scenario testing 83.35. I will stand aside for now.

USD/CHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF failed to continued its bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0464 and closed at 1.0497. Overall we are still in range area of 1.0675 - 1.0350 and need a break on either side to see clearer direction. Immediate support at 1.0450. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0350. Initial resistance at 1.0600 followed by 1.0675. I will stand aside for now.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast

Thursday, August 12, 2010

The EURUSD had a huge bearish movement yesterday, bottomed at 1.2859 and closed at 1.2862. On daily chart below we can see that after failed to move above 1.3340 resistance area, the Euro has been under heavy pressure and now price seems ready to test the lower line of the bullish channel, which is located around 1.2700 area, especially if price able to move consistently below 1.2800. Break below 1.2700 and violation to the bullish channel could be seen as bullish failure and potential bearish reversal scenario at least testing 1.2470. Immediate resistance at 1.2920 followed by 1.2980 - 1.3000 area. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact.

Daily Forecast for Crosses

EURJPY Daily Forecast

The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 109.65 and closed at 109.74. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 108.07 - 107.30 area. Immediate resistance at 110.00 followed by 110.70. Break above 110.70 could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the downside.

GBPJPY Daily Forecast

The GBPJPY also continued its bearish pressure yesterday, bottomed at 132.79 and closed at 133.58. On h1 chart below, as a result of huge bearish pressure, we have a new sharper bearish channel indicating strong bearish momentum. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 132.00 region. Immediate resistance at 133.70. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in a strong bearish scenario.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8966 and closed at 0.8969. Although overall the major bullish scenario remains intact, it is surely under a serious threat since we have the rising wedge formation. To ignore this bearish reversal warning is foolish. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing key support area 0.8858. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.8715 region. Immediate resistance at 0.9040. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 84.73 but closed higher at 85.32. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a strong bearish context. Another move below 84.82/73 region could continue the bearish pressure testing 83.35 area. Immediate resistance at 85.50 and the minor trendline resistance (blue). Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 86.25 but I still prefer short on rallies strategy at this phase.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD also had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5628 and closed at 1.5656. On daily chart below we can see that the Sterling has been under huge pressure after failed to move above 1.6000 psychological level and now seems ready to test the lower line of the bullish channel which is located around 1.5550 area. Break below that area and violation to the bullish channel could be seen as bullish failure and potential bearish reversal testing 1.5250. Immediate resistance at 1.5735 followed by 1.5800. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact.

USD/CHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0601 and closed at 1.0589. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.0675 but note that overall we are still in consolidation phase. Break above 1.0675 could be seen a a serious threat to the bearish scenario testing 1.0837/50 area. Immediate support at 1.0500 - 1.0480. Break below that area could area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term.

Gold Extending Weakness

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

In 240 minutes chart, Gold has topped. Gold is making its way lower in an impulsive fashion. The short term count has changed slightly. It seems as though the first 5 wave decline ended following a terminal thrust from a triangle. The 3 wave correction may be complete just shy of its 100% extension. I am exceptionally bearish gold from here.

USD/CHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.0617 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 1.0484 in a high volatile market. The bias is neutral in both nearest and medium term as price still consolidating in range area of 1.0675 - 1.0350. Immediate resistance at 1.0580. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.0675. Initial support at 1.0450. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0350.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the minor trendline resistance but whipsawed to the downside and now back below the trendline resistance indicating potential further bearish pressure as we may have a false breakout scenario here. However we know that 85.30/00 region is a strong support area and need to be clearly broken before testing 84.82 and 83.35 region. Immediate resistance at 85.96 followed by 86.25 area.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5709 closed higher at 1.5850 but traded lower around 1.5790 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and overall we are still in bullish phase as long as price move inside the bullish channel but further downside pressure still potential from here re-testing 1.5735/09 support area. Consistent move below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5660 even 1.5550 region. Bullish may re-gain its momentum again only if able to stay consistently above 1.5966.

Daily Forecast for Crosses

EURJPY Daily Forecast

The EURJPY made a significant bearish momentum by slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating a serious threat to the upside correction scenario. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 110.70. Immediate resistance at 112.70. Break above that area should keep the upside scenario intact.

GBPJPY Daily Forecast

The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session traded around 134.60 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 113.70. Immediate resistance at 135.80. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone but the bearish scenario remains intact as long as price move inside the bearish channel.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9058 but closed higher at 0.9131 and traded lower again around 0.9070 at the time I wrote this comment. After price break below the rising wedge, technically we are enter the bearish phase at least in nearest term now testing 0.9040 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure targeting 0.8965 before testing key support level around 0.8858. Immediate resistance at 0.9139 (current high). Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3074, closed higher at 1.3175 and now traded lower again 1.3105 at the time I wrote this comment. Overall we are still in bullish phase but if there are times when price will make potential significant downside correction, now is one of those times. Like I said, we are now in a tricky phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term but further downside pullback still potential from here testing 1.3045/00 region especially if price able to move consistently below 1.3105. Bullish may re-gain its momentum again only if able to stay consistently above 1.3250.

USD/CHF Daily Forecast

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

The USDCHF failed to continue its bearish scenario yesterday after unable to re-test 1.0350 support area, topped at 1.0498 and slipped above 1.0500 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.0580 even 1.0675 area but only a consistent move above 1.0675 could be seen as a serious threat to the bearish outlook. On the downside, we need a clear break below 1.0350 to continue the bearish scenario.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, but as you can see on my h4 chart below the minor trendline resistance did a good job so far. The bias remains neutral and we may have another upside pressure re-testing the minor trendline resistance but overall the major scenario remains bearish. Consistent move above the minor trendline resistance and 85.96 area could trigger further upside correction testing 86.50 - 87.00 area. On the downside, 85.32 and 84.82 remains the nearest bearish target before testing 83.35 region.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after unable to move consistently above 1.5966, bottomed at 1.5892 and keep moving lower around 1.5820 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently below 1.5815 area targeting 1.5735. We are entering the tricky phase here as we have conflicting bias between short term (bearish) and medium term (bullish). Fundamental focus will be on FOMC statement.

Daily Forecast for Crosses

EURJPY Daily Forecast


The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, but so far unable to consistently move above the minor trendline resistance and traded lower around 113.16 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 112.70 but the bullish correction scenario remains intact as long as the bullish channel hold. Break below 112.70 could trigger further downside pressure testing the lower line of the bullish channel and 112.00 - 111.50 region which could be a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario. Immediate resistance at 113.73 (current high). Consistent move above that area could resume the upside correction scenario testing 114.73 and 115.50.

GBPJPY Daily Forecast

The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday, but traded lower around 135.90 at the time I write this comment. On h1 chart below we can see the upper line of the bearish channel did a good job preventing upside pressure indicating potential further downside momentum testing 134.96/50 area. On the upside, only a violation to the bearish channel and movement above 137.00 could continue the upside correction scenario re-testing 137.50/70.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD made a significant technical movement today, by break below the rising wedge formation. This fact could trigger further bearish pressure at least testing 0.9040 region. Immediate resistance remains at 0.9220/30 and only break above that area could continue the bullish scenario.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast

The EURUSD failed to continue its bullish scenario yesterday after unable to re-test 1.3340 resistance level, bottomed at 1.3215 and keep moving lower around 1.3190 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3105 area but note that we are still in bullish phase. Immediate resistance at 1.3250. Another move above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3340. We are entering the tricky phase here as we have conflicting bias between short term (bearish) and medium term (bullish). Fundamental focus will be on the FOMC statement.

USD/CHF Daily Forecast

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday. We have unclear direction in nearest term as price is now consolidating but the main scenario remains bearish with nearest target remains around 1.0320 and 1.0220 area. Immediate resistance remain around 1.0500 region.

USD/JPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 85.67 and closed hit 85.39 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 84.82 (November 2009 low). Immediate resistance at 85.96 and the minor trendline resistance (blue). Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but the main scenario remains bearish and I still prefer short on rallies strategy.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD also had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5966 and closed at 1.5950. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price break above 1.5966 targeting 1.6000/50 before testing 1.6150. We are going to have the NFP on Friday and usually market could become a little bit more unpredictable especially in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.5850/15 region. Note that price has been moving in strong bullish momentum without significant correction since July 22 so any downside pullback should not be a surprise.

Daily Forecast for Crosses

EURJPY Daily Forecast

The EURJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday and now back below 113.50. The bias is neutral in nearest term as direction is unclear but as long as price move inside the bullish channel the upside correction scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 112.70. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 111.50 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Initial resistance at 113.70/50 followed by 114.10/15 area.

GBPJPY Daily Forecast

The GBPJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday and slipped below 136.30 support area earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently below 136.30 and violate the bullish channel testing 134.90 support area. Initial resistance at 137.36 (yesterday's high). Break above that area could continue the upside correction scenario testing 139.50 this week.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The main scenario remains bullish but as long as the rising wedge exist, I will stand aside from this pair. Immediate support at 0.9070. Initial resistance, which is also the nearest technical bullish target at 0.9230 area.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast

The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3260 and closed a little bit lower at 1.3229. On daily chart below we have another bullish technical evidence where price break above the trendline resistance. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase. We are going to have the NFP on Friday and usually market could become a little bit more unpredictable especially in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.3200 followed by 1.3150. On the upside, a break above 1.3260 could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3340.